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TobaccoIntelligence analysts have already outlined what they expect to be the most likely impactful happenings for the upcoming year. But now here are two riskier bets: Argentina will move to legalise and regulate nicotine alternatives, and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) will take steps to regulate them in 2025.
Both of these are potentially riskier propositions than those outlined in TobaccoIntelligence’s general 2025 predictions. In Argentina, there is time enough to enact regulations that would create a legal market for nicotine alternatives. But there is still some concern over priorities and political will to do so; whereas in the EAEU, the move to enact regulations is practically a certainty. However, the additional work authorities now want to do means regulations may struggle to come into force within the calendar year.
Cautious optimism in Argentina
For Argentina, the government under president Javier Milei could liberalise the vaping and heated tobacco markets. It’s something of a bold assumption, given that it is not a priority for the government. And it is one TobaccoIntelligence already made for 2024. The difference, though, is that in 2024, Milei had just assumed office (December 2023) and had other urgent issues to address, such as reform packages and the Law of Bases and Starting Points for the Freedom of Argentines (Ley de Bases).
Now that those other, most urgent, issues have been addressed, 2025 may be the year in which less-pressing issues – such as the liberalisation of the vape market – are addressed. Debate is increasing, stakeholders are pushing, and the industry seems to feel a bit upbeat about the whole thing, all of which has 2025 shaping up to a more optimistic year than 2024.
This optimism marks a change for the industry from how things looked under the previous government. But there are still reasons to be cautious. For one, many officials in the current government were also part of the previous regime. Depending on their position of influence, they could make for quite the roadblock.
And although new deputies and officials from Milei’s Liberty Advances (La Libertad Avanza) party appear to be more open about the idea of liberalising the market, the government does still have more pressing issues than nicotine alternatives. The lack of priority for vaping and heated tobacco regulation means that while the government may be more friendly towards harm-reduction products, there is no guarantee action will be taken this year, making change in Argentina something of a riskier prediction for 2025.
EAEU will move forward on nicotine alternatives regulation
Meanwhile, more certain in terms of occurring overall but riskier in terms of coming into force in 2025 is the regulation of nicotine alternatives in the EAEU. Most recently the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) – the executive body of the EAEU – told TobaccoIntelligence that it was delaying the draft of regulations for nicotine alternatives in order to conduct a metrological expertise and regulatory impact assessment of the regulation.
The EEC also said the draft regulation will have to undergo the internal approval process and further consideration at the EEC and the EEC Council meetings before it would be considered for being adopted by a joint decision.
The draft would provide the common product, notification and labelling requirements for vaping and heated tobacco products for all five EAEU member states. Given the regulation would only come into force 12 months after adoption, it would be risky to expect it to be completed in 2025. But work will certainly progress on it.
The draft has been undergoing work since 2022 when a draft to harmonise common product, notification and labelling requirements for vaping products and heated tobacco for all EAEU member states was circulated. A public consultation and further revisions followed before the revised draft of the technical regulation for nicotine-containing products was presented at a meeting of the working group held on 16th July 2024.
It should be noted, however, that considering the recent ban on vaping products in Kazakhstan, the ban in Kyrgyzstan that is set to be in place from July 2025 and the Russian bill to ban vaping products, we understand that the standard rules, if adopted, could apply to only two countries in the union (Armenia and Belarus).
– Freddie Dawson, Sergi Riudalbàs and Dmytro Korchahin TobaccoIntelligence staff
Photo: BoliviaInteligente, Addicted04, Leftcry
